This isn’t the worst job market that U.S. workers have ever navigated, and if you asked most economists, unemployment should’ve been higher than it is right now thanks to elevated interest rates.
Yet, the latest data from Bankrate is adding to signs that the job market could be entering a holding pattern — as more workers stay put in their current positions and companies slow their hiring plans.
More than 3 in 5 workers (61 percent) received a pay increase in the 12 months since October 2023, either from earning a pay raise at their current job, finding a new, better-paying position or both. That’s down modestly from 64 percent in 2023 and consistent with levels from 2022 (61 percent).
However, the share of workers who earned a pay increase by switching to a better-paying job fell to 20 percent in 2024, after hitting 26 percent between October 2022 and 2023 and 21 percent between August 2021 and 2022. Workers were most likely to earn a pay bump this year by getting a raise at their current job (49 percent), similar to levels from 2022 (48 percent) and 2023 (48 percent). Both totals include 8 percent of workers who got both a pay bump in their current role and a higher-paying new gig.
The results signal that workers have held on to at least some of their historic post-pandemic bargaining power, but finding new job opportunities is becoming more competitive. Job openings have retreated to just about pre-pandemic levels after soaring to a record 12 million in the spring of 2022, according to Labor Department data. Job switchers, meanwhile, are earning nearly identical pay increases as the workers who stayed put, suggesting that companies are no longer clamoring for more talent, a Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta analysis shows.
A shifting employment landscape could further erode the confidence consumers have in the economy thanks to high prices. Wages have been rising faster than inflation for almost a year and a half, yet half of workers who received a pay increase (50 percent) said in Bankrate’s poll that their incomes have not kept pace with increases in their household expenses.
The job market is all too often being judged relative to a couple of years ago when it was described as ‘red hot.’ It is not that any longer, having largely normalized after the unusual and remarkable distortions and disruptions related to the pandemic.
— Mark Hamrick, Bankrate senior economic analyst
Key findings from Bankrate’s 2024 Pay Raise Survey
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These are the workers still finding better-paying jobs in 2024
Some workers had better luck at finding higher-paying jobs than others, though all groups had less success this year than in the months between October 2022 and 2023.
Men (24%) are more likely than women (16%) to have found a better-paying job in the past 12 months. That’s down from 28 percent and 23 percent, respectively, in 2023.
Meanwhile, younger workers were more likely to find a better-paying job in 2024, at:
- Generation Z (ages 18-27): 32 percent
- Millennials (ages 28-43): 26 percent
- Gen X (ages 44-59): 15 percent
- Baby boomers (ages 60-78): 6 percent
Early in their careers and having not yet hit their peak earnings, young people have long been the ones most likely to job hop in Bankrate’s annual Pay Raise Survey. Yet, those percentages from 2024 dropped significantly from 2023, when they ranged from:
- Gen Z: 47 percent
- Millennials: 31 percent
- Gen X: 18 percent
- Baby boomers: 7 percent
By income levels, the country’s lowest-paid workers were more likely than higher-paid individuals to find a new, better-paying job, at 26 percent for those earning less than $50,000 per year. That compares with 19 percent both for workers earning between $80,000 and $99,999 as well as those earning $100,000 or more a year. About 1 in 5 (18 percent) who earn between $50,000 and $79,999 said the same.
That might be because there’s more demand for jobs in traditionally lower-paying sectors, including the leisure and hospitality industry as well as food services and accommodations, according to data from the Labor Department.
Even job postings data from Indeed shows that vacancies in sectors including retail, food services and nursing remain higher than pre-pandemic levels. On the flip side, higher-paying, white-collar positions in fields such as software development or banking and finance report fewer vacancies now than they did before the outbreak.
“It’s true that people are holding onto their workers, but slowing down in terms of hiring,” says Allison Shrivastava, associate economist at Indeed. “But it does depend on what industry you’re in. In-person sectors are still doing pretty well.”
High-income, middle-aged workers most likely to earn pay raises at current job
On the other hand, more than half of those making $100,000 a year or more (at 57 percent) and workers making between $50,000 and $79,999 per year (54 percent) got a pay raise at their current job. That compares with half (50 percent) of those making between $80,000 and $99,999 a year and 42% of those who earn less than $50,000 annually.
Millennial workers (at 56 percent) similarly led the charge. Gen Xers came in second place (48 percent), followed by Gen Zers (43 percent) and baby boomers (42 percent).
Roughly the same percentage of men (49 percent) and women (48 percent) got a pay increase.
The job market is full of mixed signals right now, according to the latest snapshot from the Labor Department. Through September, employers created slightly more jobs in 2024 than they did in the same period in 2019 — an era for the job market often described as “healthy.” Layoffs are also low, as are new applications for unemployment benefits. Yet, long-term unemployment is the highest since 2017, fewer workers than before the outbreak are quitting their positions and the hiring rate is the lowest since 2014.
Scarred by the struggle to quickly rehire workers after pandemic-era lockdowns ended, companies might be waiting to adjust their payrolls or hiring plans until they get more clarity about the overall health of the U.S. economy, Shrivastava speculates.
“Overall, it’s still a pretty good job market, it’s still a pretty good economy, but it is hard when you’re coming from the perspective of 2022,” she adds. “It might take longer to find a new job if you are on the market and to leave your current job — if you’re interested in doing so — and find another one quickly.”
Half of workers who got a pay increase still say their pay hasn’t kept pace with inflation
Pay increases are a sign of a healthy job market, which economists say could be the saving grace for Americans who still feel left behind by inflation. Wage growth has been rising at a faster pace than prices since May 2023, helping many Americans regain some of their lost ground.
Even so, almost as many workers as last year (60% in 2023 versus 59% in 2024) say they are still feeling the pinch, including those who received a pay increase over the past 12 months. That’s despite inflation hitting 2.6 percent at the time of polling, down from 3.2 percent during 2023’s poll. The average worker has seen a 4.6 percent pay increase over the past 12 months, according to the Atlanta Fed.
| Has your pay kept pace with increases in your expenses? | All workers | Workers who received a pay increase | Workers who didn’t receive a pay increase |
| Yes, it has | 32% | 42% | 16% |
| No, it has not | 59% | 50% | 73% |
| I don’t know | 10% | 9% | 12% |
“People are focused generally on prices, not that they aren’t going up as much as before,” Hamrick says. “Many individuals and households find it challenging to purchase vehicles and homes, and interest rates remain near their recent peak, affecting financing. Costs of health care, prescriptions and higher education are structural issues that won’t be resolved in the foreseeable future.”
Americans’ paychecks are on pace to fully recover from inflation by the second quarter of 2025, according to Bankrate’s Wage to Inflation Index for 2024. Meanwhile, workers in two industries driving job growth recently (leisure and hospitality and accommodation and food services) never lost ground to inflation, the analysis found. Those positions, however, are some of the lowest paying in the U.S. economy.
Low-income workers are the most likely to say their pay has not kept up with inflation, at:
- under $50,000 annually: 63%
- between $50,000 and $79,999: 59%
- between $80,000 and $99,999: 62%
- $100,000 or more: 54%
Baby boomers (73 percent) and Gen Xers (70 percent) are also more likely to say their pay has not kept up with inflation versus 52 percent of millennials and 40 percent of Gen Zers.
Meanwhile, women (62 percent) are more likely than men (56 percent) to say that their income has not kept pace with inflation.
53% of workers are confident they’ll get a pay increase over the next 12 months
Even as the job market has slowed, more than half of workers (53 percent) are confident that they’ll see a pay increase over the next 12 months, either by finding a new, better-paying job or earning a raise at their current company. That includes 33 percent who are somewhat confident and 20 percent who are very confident. Slightly more than a third (36 percent) say they are not confident they’ll see a pay bump through either avenue.
The workers who received an increase are even more assured that they’ll see higher pay in the year ahead (at 68 percent), with 40 percent somewhat confident and 29 percent very confident.
Every demographic across ages, gender, race and income levels was more likely to be confident than not of a future pay increase — except those who didn’t receive a pay increase in the past 12 months through either a pay raise or switching to a better-paying job. More than half of them (53 percent) said they were not confident, while 31 percent said they were confident.
“The future is highly uncertain and trying to predict where the economy will be a year or two from now is very challenging and perhaps even unproductive,” Hamrick says. “Economic cycles are a part of life and workers must navigate understanding that broader trends present both risks and opportunities.”
Bottom line
The job market might not be falling apart, but it doesn’t feel prosperous for everyone. Coupled with the lingering pain of inflation, the slowdown might help explain why workers have felt so gloomy about their finances.
- Learn how to speak your company’s language: If you’re hoping to get a raise in the next year or relying on it to continue recovering from inflation, be sure to find ways to illustrate how your individual contributions have helped your company’s bottom line. Use performance data and come with specific examples of when you went above and beyond.
- Continue building your skill sets: Workers with competitive skills or experience are more likely to have an edge, even during cooler job markets. Ask yourself: What could make you more efficient or proficient at your job? What skills do you often see in job openings within your industry that you might not have yet?
- Don’t forget about basic financial principles: Eliminating debt and having a solid emergency fund can help arm you with the financial cushions that make taking a risk and job hopping easier in a tougher market. You’ll need to set a budget and stick with it, but in today’s high-rate era, you can also find no-risk high-yield savings accounts and certificates of deposit (CD) that make growing your wealth even easier.
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